‘High Likelihood’ PS6 Will Launch After 2028, According to New Analyst Forecast, as Sony Focuses on Extending PS5 Lifecycle

A recent analyst report has suggested that Sony may push the launch of the PlayStation 6 beyond 2028 and lengthen the PlayStation 5 lifecycle.

Ahead of Sony’s third quarter financial report due on February 5, 2026, David Gibson, senior analyst at MST international who focuses on game and tech companies, published a Japanese language report giving insights into the Sony Group’s current performance and potential next moves.

According to Gibson, Sony’s earnings for the third quarter are expected to exceed forecasts, with strong sales of first and third-party games driving growth. He also noted that game and network services (including PSN subscriptions) are set to remain strong. Q3 sales are predicted to total around 1.8 trillion yen (approx. $11.6 billion), with operating income at 160 billion yen (approx. $1 billion).

“Sony expects the PS5 lifecycle to be longer than that of previous console generations,” Gibson said, adding that this is likely to push the PS6 launch back beyond previous predictions. “There’s a high likelihood that the PS6 launch will occur after 2028.” If Gibson is right, we won’t see the PS6 until 2029 at the earliest.

Hints that Sony aims to extend the PS5 lifecycle can be seen in recent moves made by the company. In a bid to make the PS5 more affordable to domestic players, Sony launched a reduced-price Japan-only PS5 console model in November. It also implemented planned price cuts to PS5 consoles for Black Friday in the U.S. and elsewhere. ThIs suggests Sony is trying to attract more users to its five-year-old console and expand its audience.

However Gibson suggested that Sony is more focused on existing PS5 users than boosting console sales. Regarding PlayStation Network services and active PS5 users, Gibson observed that “PS5 user activity continues to set all-time record highs according to usage data. Sony is focusing more on retaining active users than expanding hardware sales.”

One problem that is facing console makers this year is the rising costs of components. Memory is in high demand because companies like Nvidia and Google require so much of it for their AI chips, with a CNBC report pointing out that these companies “are the first ones in line for the components.” This will likely push up RAM prices and have a knock-on impact on both console retail prices and availability. Over at Sony rival Nintendo, president Shuntaro Furukawa failed to rule out future price increases for the Switch 2, commenting that “we must monitor the situation closely.”

It’s likely that Sony is also keeping a close eye on this situation with regard to both PS5 hardware and the timing of the PS6 launch. Gibson predicted that “rising memory prices will not impact short-term performance thanks to Sony’s existing inventory.” However, he noted that increased memory costs could become an issue for Sony in the next fiscal year (ending in March 2027), saying “Sony might pass future cost increases onto consumers.”

The timing of a console’s launch can make or break its success, as seen with the Sega Dreamcast. At the moment, Sony seems to be sticking with the PS5 and PS5 Pro thanks to strong network service profits, healthy game sales, and growing active user numbers. And let’s remember that the console-exclusive Grand Theft Auto 6, due out later this year, is sure to spark a surge in console sales all on its own. However, Gibson warned that if Sony waits too long to launch the PS6, “it could create long-term risks.”

Back in October, Sony’s tech wizard Mark Cerny teased a number of new video game graphics features in a video published to the official PlayStation YouTube channel titled ‘From Project Amethyst to the Future of Play: AMD and Sony Interactive Entertainment’s Shared Vision.’ Almost all of the near nine minute chat was about advances in graphics technology Sony and AMD have been working on over the past two years.

But then, at the end of the video, a rather innocuous line from Cerny himself mentioned a “future console” coming in “a few years’ time.” Most took that to suggest Sony planned to release the PS6 late 2028. Could Sony’s next-gen console plans include a new PlayStation handheld, too? In August last year, PlayStation 6 handheld rumors ramped up, alongside claims the device would be dockable.