After the disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections, by-elections are to be held soon on 10 seats of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The by-election is being considered as the semi-final of the assembly elections to be held in 2027. Like the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP may face a tough challenge from the opposition alliance ‘India’. Experts believe that the social equations of most of the areas where by-elections are being held are not in favor of the BJP. By-elections are to be held on 10 seats that fell vacant after nine MLAs were elected MPs in Uttar Pradesh and SP MLA Irfan Solanki of Sisamau assembly constituency of Kanpur Nagar was sentenced to seven years. However, the date of the by-election has not been announced yet.
The BJP has vowed to win all 10 seats in the by-elections, but experts say it will not be easy for the party to achieve this target as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress are preparing to contest the elections together.
In the BJP state working committee meeting held on July 14 in the Ambedkar Auditorium of Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia Law University in Lucknow, the party’s Uttar Pradesh unit president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary had told the workers that let us all take a pledge that we will achieve 100 percent victory in the upcoming by-elections to be held on 10 assembly seats.
After this call of the state president, the BJP has intensified preparations from the organization to the booth level and three to four ministers and officials have been given the responsibility of one assembly constituency each. Apart from this, CM Yogi himself has taken two assembly seats in his hands. BJP’s state vice-president and Legislative Council member Vijay Bahadur Pathak, who is in charge of election management, told PTI-Bhasha that the date of the by-election has not been decided yet, but the party has started preparations on a large scale. BJP and its allies together will win all 10 seats.
However, political analyst and retired professor of Lucknow University, Dr. Rajesh Mishra told PTI-Bhasha that BJP’s resolve to win all 10 seats is very challenging considering the results of the 2022 assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The political and social equations of many of the seats going to by-elections are not in favor of the BJP. If the BJP’s performance in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections was not as per expectations, then the situation will be even more challenging for the party in the upcoming assembly by-elections.
In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won only 33 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while its allies Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had to be content with two seats and Apna Dal (S) with one seat. Meanwhile, SP had won 37 seats and Congress had won six seats. One seat went to Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram).
Many leaders including Congress state president Ajay Rai and SP chief spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary have said that SP and Congress will fight the by-elections together. On the seat sharing, Chaudhary said that the responsibility of deciding this lies with the party high command.
Out of the 10 seats of Uttar Pradesh Assembly on which by-elections are to be held, BJP had given Majhawan and Katehari seats to its ally Nishad Party, while it had fielded its candidates in Karhal, Milkipur, Kundarki, Khair, Ghaziabad, Meerapur, Phulpur and Sisamau. Nishad Party was successful in registering victory in Majhawan, but it had to face defeat in Katehari. On the other hand, out of the eight seats on which BJP contested, it got victory only in Khair, Ghaziabad and Phulpur.
The remaining five seats were won by the SP, while one seat went to the RLD, which was then part of the opposition. Before the Lok Sabha elections, the RLD joined the BJP-led ruling coalition. Political experts say, “In the 2022 assembly elections, the BJP candidate in Phulpur defeated his nearest rival from the SP by a margin of less than three thousand votes.
On the other hand, BJP had performed brilliantly in Khair and Ghaziabad. But in seats like Karhal and Kundarki, SP had made a huge lead and left BJP far behind. The results of seats like Milkipur, Sisamau, Katehari and Meerapur were also not in favour of BJP.”
Ayodhya’s Milkipur seat fell vacant due to the election of Avdhesh Prasad and Karhal (Mainpuri) seat fell vacant due to the election of Akhilesh Yadav as MPs. BJP has a special eye on both these seats. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has started frequent visits here. On Sunday, CM Yogi has reached here for the third time in ten days. The party has put in its full strength in Karhal too and many leaders and ministers including Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak are busy in balancing the equations there.
A BJP leader said that the party wants to win these seats in the by-elections and end the sting of defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. However, social worker Ramprakash Yadav said that the internal conflict in the BJP and the pressure of the allies regarding the seat sharing is not creating the desired atmosphere, while the SP has started siege up to the booth level by insisting on its PDA (backward, Dalit and minority) formula.
